World Bank to Investigate Regional Risks of Rogun Dam Project

The World Bank’s Inspection Panel has agreed to review a formal complaint filed by residents of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan concerning the environmental and social risks associated with the Rogun Hydropower Project (HPP) in Tajikistan. The complaint, submitted by the regional environmental coalition Rivers Without Boundaries, targets a $350 million World Bank loan and related technical assistance used to revise the project’s 2014 environmental and social impact assessments.

The complainants argue that the current studies are outdated and inadequate, relying on assumptions that are more than a decade old. They contend the assessments fail to account for the downstream effects of storing and diverting water from the Vakhsh River, one of the primary tributaries of the Amu Darya basin, on communities and ecosystems in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

Preliminary estimates from the World Bank suggest that filling the Rogun reservoir could decrease the flow into the Aral Sea by 0.8 to 1.2 cubic kilometers annually, potentially cutting today’s levels by as much as 25%. Such a reduction, critics warn, could exacerbate ongoing issues in the region, including desertification, soil salinity, and land degradation. These challenges have plagued villages in the lower Amu Darya since Soviet-era irrigation schemes dramatically reduced the sea’s volume, leading to persistent dust storms and declining water quality.

Local farmers are particularly concerned about the dam’s effect on the timing of water availability. If the dam shifts the river’s flow from spring and summer into winter storage, it could disrupt traditional irrigation cycles, forcing expensive infrastructure adjustments. Some communities fear economic collapse and forced migration if water needs go unmet during critical planting seasons.

Environmental experts also highlight the cumulative threat posed by the Rogun HPP in conjunction with Afghanistan’s planned Qosh Tepa canal. No comprehensive analysis has been conducted to evaluate the combined impact of these two major water diversion projects on regional hydrology and biodiversity.

The World Bank itself estimates that climate change could reduce water availability in the region by 15-30% by 2050, potentially costing Uzbekistan up to 250,000 agricultural jobs and requiring billions in climate adaptation investments.

In response, Rivers Without Boundaries has called on the World Bank and its co-financiers, who have collectively pledged over $1 billion, to suspend further funding until a transparent, independent risk assessment is completed. The coalition advocates for a thorough study of alternative project designs, such as a lower dam height, to mitigate environmental and social damage. They also demand genuine public consultation with all Amu Darya basin countries, equitable compensation mechanisms, and legally binding water management agreements.

Failure to address these concerns, the group warns, risks triggering an irreversible ecological and humanitarian crisis across Central Asia.