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Tears for Fears: Tens of thousands mourned the death of Ebrahim Raisi. Many others discreetly celebrated. (Sky News photo)
What Killed Ebrahim Raisi? Who benefits? That’s the question intelligence analysts ask in response to surprises like Sunday’s helicopter crash that killed Iran’s president and foreign minister.
A U.S.-made Bell 212 helicopter transporting Iranian President Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and six others crashed in heavy fog over mountains in Iran’s East Azerbaijan province. Iran’s preliminary investigation reported no signs of foul play. That doesn’t mean there wasn’t.
Former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and others inside Iran blamed U.S. sanctions, which made it difficult to source parts for a 30-year-old helicopter flying in bad weather. Blogger Richard Silverstein quoted an Israeli security source who said the crash was no accident: “Any head of state ordering an attack on Israel signs his own death sentence.”
Raisi’s death scrambled back-channel talks between Tehran and Washington. Axios reported on May 17 that Brett McGurk, President Biden’s senior Middle East adviser, held indirect negotiations in Oman earlier this month with Ali Bagheri Kani, Iran’s point man for negotiations with the West. Middle East Eye, a London-based website reportedly financed by Qatar, reported that Raisi’s death “jeopardized” the talks. McGurk’s counterpart, Bagheri Kani, is now acting foreign minister.
The Atlantic reported that the biggest beneficiary of Raisi’s death may be one of the rival factions seeking to gain power in Iran. The crash altered the balance of power and eliminated Raisi from contention to succeed Iran’s 85-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.